Plan the replacement planting

The stocking survey should answer two different questions: how many 2026 redwoods survived, and how many suitable trees are growing in the places we need them. A damaged living seedling counts as a survivor; whether it will become a useful crop tree requires a separate judgment.

Start with a map of the shortfall

Review the systematic plot results, unresolved seedlings and mapped gaps with Dave and the consulting forester. Agree on the desired future stocking and species mix for each area. The old management plan’s Douglas-fir/grand-fir prescription is historical context; it is not an instruction to overwrite the redwood planting.

List each gap, its verified area, suitable planting positions, acceptable existing trees and likely causes needing attention. Keep naturally regenerated conifers and the earlier trial visible, but separate from the 2026 survival tally. Do not order from a property-wide average alone: a dense patch cannot cancel out an empty one.

Estimate plugs from the desired surviving trees

For each area:

Find the shortfall. Subtract measured acceptable trees per acre from the agreed target. Use zero if there is no shortfall. Multiply by that area’s verified acres.
Allow explicitly for establishment losses. Divide the desired additional survivors by a stated assumption about replacement survival. This is a planning assumption, not a forecast. Use the first-year findings to judge whether site preparation or a different species is needed.
Reconcile with actual spaces. Compare the estimate with mapped suitable empty planting positions. Avoid putting new trees beside acceptable survivors just to use up a numerical order.
Check existing reservations. Confirm quantity, seedling type, delivery date and cancellation terms directly from the nursery record before deciding how many additional plugs are needed. Ordering is Dave’s decision.

Worked example—not property results

Suppose a verified 25-acre unit has 300 acceptable trees per acre and an agreed target of 350. The shortfall is 1,250 surviving trees. At an assumed 90% replacement survival, it would take about 1,389 plugs to establish that many trees. If a reservation for 1,000 matching plugs were confirmed, the additional order would be about 389, before any separately justified handling allowance.

The calculation must change if the acres, target, acceptable stocking, available spaces or survival assumption change. If only part of the unit needs treatment, calculate that part separately.

Choose the planting window from conditions

The intended choice is a suitable fall 2026 or winter/spring 2027 window. Confirm seedling availability, moist soil, access and expected weather with the nursery and forester before scheduling. A date on a delivery record does not make dry ground suitable for planting.

Where losses are concentrated, record brush competition, browsing, exposure and other symptoms. Have the cause reviewed before repeating the same treatment. Select any protection or vegetation-control work from that review, with the appropriate instructions and requirements.

Leave a usable record for next year

Record actual planting date, unit, species/lot, actual number planted, crew, treatment and a map of replacement areas. Photograph representative planting work and retain nursery records. Keep replacement seedlings identifiable as their own planting cohort so the next survey can measure their establishment separately.

Before a firm order: finish the planting boundary and 2026 tally, resolve survey gaps, agree on acceptable stocking, and confirm the nursery reservation. No survey results or new order are represented as complete on this page.

Proposed management workflow, September 7, 2026. Confirm applicable reforestation requirements with ODF or the consulting forester; this is not a compliance certificate.